How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

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minutephysics

minutephysics

Hace 2 meses

This video made possible with support of Brilliant - the first 200 subscribers to go to Brilliant.org/MinutePhysics get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
Go to aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph from the video yourself!
RESOURCES
Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics: eswomen.com/id/v%C3%ADdeo-Kas0tIxDvrg.html
Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site: github.com/aatishb/covid/blob/master/curvefit.ipynb
Data Source: github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
Understanding logarithmic scales: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html
What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight: www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028
(Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
Support MinutePhysics on Patreon! www.patreon.com/minutephysics
Link to Patreon Supporters: www.minutephysics.com/supporters/

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And facebook - facebook.com/minutephysics

Minute Physics provides an energetic and entertaining view of old and new problems in physics -- all in a minute!

Created by Henry Reich

physicsminutephysicsscienceCOVID-19

Comentarios
Andre Filipe
Andre Filipe Hace un hora
How about making a minute of the earth on lucid dreams? I think it will be very cool the subject is interesting
Wonder Connection
Wonder Connection Hace 23 horas
Thanks! This was super informational
Jeffrey Sommer
Jeffrey Sommer Hace un día
Presuming you are getting accurate data from other countries. I expect the number of cases in China is at least one magnitude higher.
Richard Shandross
Richard Shandross Hace 2 días
@minutephysics, I'm afraid you have a SERIOUS error here. What you are plotting is log(dy/dt) vs. log(y), so a straight line means log(dy/dt) = k*log(y), or dy/dt = y^k. Thus, y = exp(integral of y^(k-1)*t). Since k < 1, this is an exponential only in form because as y grows the y^(k-1) term shrinks. If k = 0.5, then by the time there are a million cases, that term is 10^-5 of the value it started out with, assuming that k stayed constant.
sweiland75
sweiland75 Hace 2 días
America doesn't seem at all interested in containing this epidemic, especially now with the riots happening.
Vitaly Kroychik
Vitaly Kroychik Hace 2 días
Let’s go ahead and take Chinese numbers with a whole salt mine full of salt.
Methe Meticians
Methe Meticians Hace 3 días
Drawings And Science
Drawings And Science Hace 3 días
Make a video answering this question: Is AI smarter than us?
Vito C
Vito C Hace 4 días
The Philippines is handling this horribly. We don't even know how our curve looks because the government won't conduct mass testing as adequate levels. And we're relaxing quarantine measures (after THREE MONTHS) before we've even seen any evidence that the curve is flattening.
Balesy10plays Yt
Balesy10plays Yt Hace 4 días
Roses are red violets are blue why does the Karen think covid-19 is just the ordinary flu
Douglas Powell
Douglas Powell Hace 4 días
Can you revisit with current data and talk about why so many countries demonstrate exponential decay, but not USA? I also tried looking at new cases as ppm and displayed not as absolute numbers but rate of change. There appears to be a period "bump" approximately every 7 days. Is this real or a result of how data is collected?
snehalkumar padghane
snehalkumar padghane Hace 4 días
How's india doing ?Plz reply
Paul T Sjordal
Paul T Sjordal Hace 5 días
Lately, Republicans have been using the Total Cases statistic to argue that blue states have a worse response to this pandemic than red states. This video beautifully explains why changes in New Cases is the most relevant statistic if we want to talk about a given government's response to this pandemic.
Paul T Sjordal
Paul T Sjordal Hace 5 días
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html This does not make the same calculation the Minutephysics channel suggests, but it does show changes in new cases over time broken down by state.
Jennifer Beveridge
Jennifer Beveridge Hace 5 días
Two months later, and I'm still checking this graph on a daily basis. I've noticed that rather than a flat or smooth curve, my state's version of "leveling out" is a series of dips where the weekly infection rate is between 500 to 600 new cases, and peaks where it's in the upper 700's. That made me wonder: since going out to restock my fridge / pantry is unavoidable, is it safer to go out during a dip or a peak? Are there any epidemiologists who've worked this out with previous infectious diseases?
choreomaniac
choreomaniac Hace 6 días
Pennsylvania department of health has adopted this graphic animation!
Arvind Nande
Arvind Nande Hace 6 días
And another Indian!
m mandrewa
m mandrewa Hace 6 días
The graph (and video) should be modified by doing a log plot of new reported deaths per million versus a log plot of total reported deaths per million. In the absence of that it is quite misleading and is virtually certain to lead to widespread misunderstanding.
m mandrewa
m mandrewa Hace 6 días
I like this a lot. It seems like a good idea. But where the heck is the follow-up? Since this important you should be updating it at least once a week. You don't have to do it yourself, just modify the intro, not the video, but the blub below the video, by posting a link to someone else that is doing this.
m mandrewa
m mandrewa Hace 6 días
Ok, I've found it. See aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths The US fell off the line in the first half of April. And I believe that graph and the graph in this minutephysics video would be improved if it did a log/log plot of new reported deaths per million versus total reported deaths per million. As it is this plot falsely makes it appear as if many countries that are not doing well, like for instance Belgium, are doing very well, simply and only because they are small.
Duncan
Duncan Hace 7 días
.
houndarchon1
houndarchon1 Hace 7 días
the aatishb site seems down :( could you reupload the covidtrends data and graphs to some other place? thanks!
Hamisi Abdallah
Hamisi Abdallah Hace 7 días
You can make this Juice at home to attack Covid-19 Virus.eswomen.com/id/v%C3%ADdeo-iz1jKtMk768.html
Gordon GM
Gordon GM Hace 8 días
Oh yeah China successfully contained the virus? I doubt that
Initially Intellectual
Initially Intellectual Hace 8 días
Why you stoped uploading
Jesse Wood
Jesse Wood Hace 8 días
“In these uncertain times, times can be a little uncertain. And when times are uncertain it can be hard to know for certain what time it is” - Ryan George
BugPvP :p
BugPvP :p Hace 9 días
1:31 OMG THAT TOOK SO LONG TO CAPTURE "*Hertzsprung-Russell, anyone?"
Dean Su
Dean Su Hace un día
If you use the period and comma keys you can scrub frame by frame, then it becomes very easy
Randy Smith
Randy Smith Hace 9 días
That might as well be a plot of China's credibility... DROPPING LIKE A ROCK!
Jinhong PARK
Jinhong PARK Hace 9 días
My country: *I AM MEDICINE* My country: South Korea
Amethyst
Amethyst Hace 2 días
왜 쪽팔림은 우리 몫..
Kalan Saunders
Kalan Saunders Hace 9 días
Covid 19 is ending in Australia
peppercorn owl
peppercorn owl Hace 7 días
Yay!
Eben Visher
Eben Visher Hace 9 días
What a fantastic video! Thanks so much for your time!!
王荺勝
王荺勝 Hace 10 días
Chinese data are fake
刘娅
刘娅 Hace 10 días
well, I'm from china and now an American university student, and I stay hometown now, wait for maybe fall semester back. we all don't believe the real case turns to absolute 0, but from February everyone from Wuhan or outside travels to another place will be stayed at home 14 days to confirm(no matter you have any symptom)if you get COVID. and from February one family only got 2day once going out chance for buying some food. the government may or must hide some cases but in china what CCP(you remind this word)say, most Chinese will follow and do even they don't agree with a lot... so all people in China don't have any outside action from February, the Wuhan get "city lockdown"(you can't leave your city absolutely anyway) I can't trust the sudden fall of the case but the increase or we actually be lower than many countries I think...south Korea did something likely, they lock their country. I love America and for china not to the government lot, I love our people...some doctors work nearly 20 days and sleep totally less than 20hour to save people...that's a challenge to everyone 希望全世界所有国家的人民早日摆脱这场灾难(best wishes for all people around the world get rid of this disaster ASAP )
Alexander Jackson
Alexander Jackson Hace 11 días
Could you make another video with these sort of graphs, to show which countries are recovering well and which aren't? It's the best way I've seen so far.
Eva Lam
Eva Lam Hace 11 días
China is LYING !!!!
karen
karen Hace 11 días
That's true, the CCP has lied again and again, ten million people have died here, come and save us plz ,XD
nitchvideo
nitchvideo Hace 11 días
Here is a powerful source of understanding. eswomen.com/id/v%C3%ADdeo-gxAaO2rsdIs.html and yes it is more help than the news or government in understanding
John the Greek
John the Greek Hace 11 días
Don't want to shit on your parade but China is most likely lying. Great video though
Freeda Peeple
Freeda Peeple Hace 11 días
I was not expecting a cogent, clear, informative video, but that's what I got! Thanks!!
Benjamin Genco
Benjamin Genco Hace 11 días
I keep coming back to get the link to the chart, hoping the US marker is gonna plummet
m mandrewa
m mandrewa Hace 6 días
And I was right. I've tracked it down and the US data begins to fall off that line sometime in the first half of April.
m mandrewa
m mandrewa Hace 6 días
I'm pretty certain it has. This graph and video are from two months ago, when the American epidemic had just begun. In fact I'll bet the US data plummeted over a month ago, back in the first half of April.
Jewelry Bag
Jewelry Bag Hace 11 días
This is a media-manufactured plandemic to further destroy the middle class and create a monopolistic dystopia. More people die of smoking, heart disease and cancer than this virus but the elites control the media narrative and, consequently, are controlling the sheep. I am so pissed off
wojeff
wojeff Hace 11 días
March 24: this video was filmed March 25: highest exponential growth point in US March 26: start of exponential growth decline in US March 27: this video premiered
Eugenia Sum
Eugenia Sum Hace 11 días
They didn’t include Taiwan tho
wojeff
wojeff Hace 11 días
I think emphasis was shown on countries with significant case totals. It's there and now in the main view too (good work Taiwan!)! aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Taiwan
Bern Metro
Bern Metro Hace 12 días
Please provide a updated version; same message new graphs. The presentation of the animated "waves of data populating the Logarithm plane is excellent!. If made current, it could demonstrate the increasing hope many need.
m mandrewa
m mandrewa Hace 6 días
@wojeff Ok thank you again. It me a few minutes to figure out what they were doing and to find the plot of new reported deaths versus total reported deaths. Here's the problem. Why not normalize the data? That is divide the numbers on each axis by the population of the country. That would make it possible to compare countries. As it is right now, it makes it appear that the United States is doing very badly, when this is largely an artifact of it being both the largest country plotted plus having more complete data.
m mandrewa
m mandrewa Hace 6 días
@wojeff Thanks!
wojeff
wojeff Hace 11 días
aatishb.com/covidtrends/
Jorge Cossa
Jorge Cossa Hace 12 días
Nice
Mario Z
Mario Z Hace 12 días
The one caveat and maybe most important is that confirmed cases is such an unreliable measure since countries have varying levels of testing and testing is inaccurate. I feel like a new number of deaths vs confirmed deaths graph would be a more realistic trend.
wojeff
wojeff Hace 11 días
That was addressed in the video. Counterpoint, you can't have deaths if you don't have cases (so grim!). They have done that for deaths here: aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths
Yash Pal Goyal
Yash Pal Goyal Hace 14 días
6:26 please pronounce the names correctly - T in Bhatia (spelt wrong in vid) is different from t in Aatish (correctly spelt in vid). GoogleTranslate says it right: translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=hi&tl=en&text=%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%B6%20%E0%A4%AD%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%9F%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%AF%E0%A4%BE
Yash Pal Goyal
Yash Pal Goyal Hace 14 días
otherwise a really nice video and thanks for bringing him in my notice. The site contains some really cool things that i am looking forward to experiment with some day.
Arwah Sapi
Arwah Sapi Hace 14 días
Statisticians: "Alright guys! It's our time to shine!"
Fez Paladin
Fez Paladin Hace 14 días
WHAT ABOUT TAIWAN?
sk Farhan
sk Farhan Hace 16 días
Hey you haven't made new video yet Where are you?
John Hailstone
John Hailstone Hace 16 días
And post-viral effects.
LIL JON'S
LIL JON'S Hace 16 días
Do a vid on if earth had 2 moons.....
IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ
IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ Hace 16 días
>implying the CCP will give accurate information about anything
tom091178
tom091178 Hace 17 días
Diseases are a mechanism of evolution.
Tae-young Kim
Tae-young Kim Hace 17 días
중국은 조작인거 아시죠?
North Korea
North Korea Hace 17 días
America:vrroomm vrroommm hell yea im going fast af China:oi, im doing 2nd wave of covid 19 lets see how it goes
no name
no name Hace 9 días
Russia: Cyka Blyat
Wendull 81
Wendull 81 Hace 11 días
Brazil: Hey Hey wait for me.
52marli
52marli Hace 17 días
I would rather know how many are sick and how sick the positives are. As long as you keep testing the number of cases will increase....but if its rare that positives are sick enough to require hospitalizations, that's what is important to me.
Dodger Yassel
Dodger Yassel Hace 18 días
You're an idiot. Your pseudoscience just tries to connect popular topics to some random concept in physics for views. You're a hack.
khoen Da boss
khoen Da boss Hace 18 días
Is this the guy who had a whole video about using cats to power Norway? Yeah it is.
Jean Poutine
Jean Poutine Hace 18 días
Total bulls**t by another person infected with Digital Narcissism peddling unicorn feces. Nobel laureate Pro. Michael Levitt studied Covid case growth rates starting with Wuhan and showed that the reported growth rates never achieved "exponential" slope, used 2nd derivative standard, and this mistaken assumption was why Neil Ferguson's initial mortality estimates were pure bolux. Covid case growth rates are about as exponential as the hits on this web-page.
Davin Riedstra
Davin Riedstra Hace 19 días
This is a great video. Perhaps even the best I've seen in the realm of Covid-19 coverage and understanding. I would love to see the timelapse graph updated for the end of May or beginning of June.
Mister Comple
Mister Comple Hace 17 días
aatishb.com/covidtrends/
Parakmi I
Parakmi I Hace 19 días
To make the gaphs look better imagine that humans are the disease.
pragadeesh sv
pragadeesh sv Hace 19 días
can u please say which animation software did u usesd for ur video?
DONG YEUN KIM
DONG YEUN KIM Hace 19 días
COVID-19: *_exists_* Korea CDC: *_So you have chosen D E A T H_*
Rin
Rin Hace 20 días
this graph reveals how absolutely shockingly insufficient the US response has been. oh.. my god..
Mister Comple
Mister Comple Hace 17 días
your comment reveals how absolutely shockingly inept you are at understanding data
jokinabadsbs
jokinabadsbs Hace 20 días
China... Success?! HAH what a joke.
CircleDrawing
CircleDrawing Hace 21 un día
US isn't tough
김철수
김철수 Hace 22 días
국뽕...
Jacob E Owens
Jacob E Owens Hace 23 días
Nobody believes the numbers out of China...
Simranjeet singh matharoo
Simranjeet singh matharoo Hace 23 días
"don't plot against time" that's a life hack right there
what is life
what is life Hace 23 días
Chinas deaths are lies. There must be more deaths than the rate it apparantly is right now. The virus came from there!
karen
karen Hace 11 días
Yes, you are right, a billion people have died here
Rachel’s rants I.
Rachel’s rants I. Hace 23 días
Can’t believe Chinas data. They lied to us.
AGR
AGR Hace 23 días
Imagine believing China’s reported numbers...
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